Pipeline Landscape
FULL BYPASS INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT · m_RESILIENCE IMPACT
| Pipeline / Route |
Status |
Capacity |
Cost (est.) |
Timeline |
Terminal |
m_res Impact |
Iran Vulnerability |
m_CEILING ARITHMETIC — FULL BUILD SCENARIO
Current m_ceiling = 3.0 (existing bypass fully operational)
Full build theoretical bypass: 18.25M bpd vs 20M bpd Hormuz
New bypass fraction: 91.25%
New m_ceiling = 3.0 + (1−0.9125)×1.75 = 3.15
⚠ Even full build only lowers m_ceiling 3.0→3.15 because Red Sea / Bab al-Mandab exposure replaces Hormuz exposure
The Central Paradox
WHY GULF PIPELINE INVESTMENT DEEPENS IRAN'S TRAP IN THE SHORT RUN
The Race EQ8 Wins Before Any Pipeline Is Built
H(t+1) = H(t) × (1−ρ_I−n_t×ρ_S) · rho_total = 0.0365/round · H(33) ≈ 32% H₀
⚠ At rho_I=0.030/round: H after 5yr pipeline build ≈ (0.9635)^1825 ≈ 0.001 H₀
⚠ H after 10yr full build ≈ 0.0 — near-total hegemony erosion before any barrel bypasses Hormuz
ONLY VIABLE ESCAPE: GULF → OMAN → ARABIAN SEA
Only route bypassing BOTH Hormuz AND Bab al-Mandab simultaneously
Requires: Persian Gulf Railway completion (UAE-Oman link, est. mid-2027) + new Omani port capacity (Duqm, Sohar, Salalah)
Timeline: 5-7 years minimum on aggressive sovereign funding
This route is NOT in the FT report — all discussed routes terminate at Red Sea (Yanbu, Neom, Aqaba).
Structural verdict: EQ8 wins the race against all currently discussed routes.