A running game-theoretic analysis of Iran's de-dollarisation strategy, the 2026 Hormuz crisis, and the structural conditions under which the petrodollar's fifty-two-year monopoly on energy invoicing is being challenged. Each analysis is a standalone module. New modules added as events develop.
Each analysis in this series formalises one equation from a complete game-theoretic model of Iran's yuan shift strategy. The full model contains 13 equations spanning the 2-player payoff matrix, strict dominance, Nash equilibrium, the dominant strategy trap, Hormuz commitment device, China's strategy, the Swing Producer cascade, repeated game hegemony decay, and the coalition extension (naval escort, separability, dominance resilience, and the three-column minimax).
All equations are derived from first principles with full boundary condition analysis, sensitivity tables, and worked numerical examples calibrated against live market data. Every analysis includes a real-world validation test against observed events in the March 2026 Hormuz crisis — treating the live geopolitical situation as an empirical test of the model's predictions.
The Hormuz Gambit is a running series updated as events develop. Analysis-001 (Equation 5) was published 17 March and updated 19 March with the Bessent waiver assessment. Analyses 002–005 are in preparation and will be published as the crisis evolves. Each module is a standalone site deployable independently on GitHub Pages.